A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
